With 50 days until the primary, California’s gubernatorial race presents Republicans their first realistic shot at the governor’s mansion in 20 years. But instead of rallying behind unified candidates, both parties have descended into chaos.
San Diego Convention: Trump’s Pick Falls Short
California Republicans gathered last weekend at the Sheraton San Diego Resort for their party convention. Delegates paid over $1,000 for flights and hotels, many sporting “Trump 2028” baseball caps. Their mission was clear: select a unified gubernatorial candidate.
They failed.
Days before the convention, Trump posted an endorsement on Truth Social backing Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host living in the Bay Area. “Steve Hilton has my COMPLETE & TOTAL ENDORSEMENT,” the president wrote, sending a direct signal to delegates.
Delegates ignored the signal. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco captured 49% of votes to Hilton’s 44%. Neither reached the 60% threshold required for official party endorsement. Republicans left San Diego without a unified candidate.
“This changes nothing in our campaign,” Bianco said after the vote. He then added: “Endorsements are silly.” Then quickly backtracked: “But it would have been nice to get it.”
Hilton, 56, represents an unusual figure in California politics. Born in London to Hungarian immigrants, he worked as a strategist for Prime Minister David Cameron before moving to the Bay Area in 2012. He founded crowdfunding platform Crowdpac and hosted “The Next Revolution” on Fox News until 2023. His campaign platform “Califordable” promises tax cuts, $3-per-gallon gasoline and homeownership for every family.
Bianco has served as Riverside County sheriff since 2018 after working in law enforcement since the 1990s. His style is blunt and populist. At the convention, he moved through crowds like a rock star, surrounded by supporters and posing for social media photos.
The split poses risks for Republicans but isn’t fatal. California uses a top-two primary system where all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same June 2 ballot. The top two vote-getters advance to November’s general election. If votes for eight Democratic candidates spread thin, both Republicans could make the final round, giving the GOP its first shot at the governor’s office since 2006.
Swalwell: 72-Hour Collapse
The biggest shakeup hit Democrats.
On Friday, April 10, the San Francisco Chronicle published an investigation revealing that a former staffer accused Congressman Eric Swalwell of sexual assault. The woman described two incidents in 2019 and 2024, according to the newspaper. Swalwell denies all allegations and calls them false.
The same day, CNN published accounts from four additional women alleging rape, unwanted physical contact and unsolicited explicit photos sent through Snapchat. CNN reported it had verified text messages, interviewed friends and family of the accusers and reviewed medical records.
Swalwell’s campaign hemorrhaged support over the weekend. Campaign co-chair Congressman Jimmy Gomez resigned and called for Swalwell to withdraw. Senators Adam Schiff and Ruben Gallego pulled their endorsements. The California Teachers Association canceled its support. More than 50 former Swalwell staffers signed an open letter urging him to quit the race and Congress.
Saturday brought news that Manhattan prosecutors had opened a criminal investigation into one episode – an alleged 2024 attack in New York.
Sunday evening, Swalwell posted on X: “I am suspending my campaign for Governor. To my family, team, friends and supporters – I deeply regret errors in judgment I have made in the past. I will fight these serious false allegations, but this is my fight, not the campaign’s fight.”
The scandal hits close to home for Bay Area residents. Swalwell represents California’s 14th District, which includes Dublin, Pleasanton, Livermore and parts of the East Bay. Before the scandal, he led the Democratic field. A March Emerson College poll showed him in first place with 17% support. Congressman Ro Khanna, another Bay Area representative, called the allegations “disgusting” on Fox News Sunday.
Eight Democratic Candidates, No Frontrunner
Swalwell’s exit left Democrats without a clear leader. Seven major Democratic candidates remain, and none holds a decisive advantage.
Tom Steyer, a billionaire who founded hedge fund Farallon Capital and ran for president in 2020, polled at 10-11% in recent surveys. His main weapon is money – he can flood airwaves with unlimited advertising.
Katie Porter, a former Orange County congresswoman and Elizabeth Warren protégé, registered 7-13% in various polls. Her campaign suffered last fall when a 2021 video surfaced showing her screaming profanities at a staffer during a virtual interview.
Other candidates include Xavier Becerra, California’s former attorney general and Biden’s health secretary; Antonio Villaraigosa, former Los Angeles mayor; Matt Mahan, current San Jose mayor running as a centrist; Betty Yee, former state controller; and Tony Thurmond, California’s education chief.
Democrats face a mathematical problem. February PPIC polling showed the top five candidates clustering between 10% and 14% – all within the margin of error. Swalwell’s 11-17% support will now redistribute among remaining Democrats, but unpredictably.
“Now it’s basically a reset. I don’t know how this plays out,” Democratic strategist Garry South told CNN.
Political data specialist Paul Mitchell estimated a 17-20% chance of a “nightmare scenario” for Democrats – both Republicans advancing to the general election – before the Swalwell scandal.
Republican strategist Mike Madrid explained the complexity of vote redistribution: “Eric had his own lane. But it wasn’t a traditional lane. His lane was that he was the most anti-Trump candidate. Trump was attacking him. So there was consolidation happening around him. That’s not going to happen now.”
What’s Next
The primary is June 2. Fifty days remain until voting begins.
Televised debates are scheduled for April 22 on Nexstar featuring Hilton, Bianco, Porter, Steyer and other candidates, followed by CNN debates May 5.
Strategists are discussing whether Democratic heavyweights – Governor Gavin Newsom, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff – might unite behind a single Democratic candidate. None has done so publicly.
For Bay Area residents, the landscape breaks down this way: one Republican candidate (Hilton) lives in the Bay Area, one Democratic candidate (Mahan) serves as San Jose mayor, and the departed Swalwell represented the East Bay.
If Democrats fail to consolidate around one candidate by June 2, California voters could face a November ballot with two Republicans and no Democrats in a state where Republicans haven’t won the governor’s race since 2006.