European climate models now forecast a dramatically increased chance of a “super El Niño” forming by summer-fall 2026, with Pacific Ocean temperatures potentially rising 4.5 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the equatorial zone. If confirmed, the event would surpass the record-setting 2015-16 El Niño, according to updated projections from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts released Sunday.
University at Albany atmospheric science professor Paul Roundy described the potential event as “the strongest in 140 years of observations.”
Super El Niño is an informal term not used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but climatologists and media apply it to events where ocean temperature anomalies exceed 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal. Five such events have occurred since 1950: 1972-73, 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16 and 2023-24. Only the 2015-16 event crossed the 4.5-degree threshold.
A rare triple formation of tropical cyclones is currently developing on both sides of the Pacific equator. Cyclone Maila reached Category 2 strength unusually close to the equatorial line, while Cyclone Vaianu, also Category 2, spins to the southeast. In the Northern Hemisphere, tropical disturbance 90W may become Tropical Storm Sinlaku by week’s end.
All three systems are accelerating westerly winds along the equator — the same mechanism that pushes warm water eastward and triggers El Niño formation. Scientists monitoring the Pacific for decades call the current pattern among the most concerning they have observed at this early stage.
Subsurface waters in the equatorial Pacific already run warmer than normal, with the cold surface layer described as paper-thin. Powerful westerly wind bursts since January have been pushing warm water eastward in what researchers recognize as classic precursors to a major El Niño.
NOAA maintains a more conservative stance, with March projections showing 62% probability of El Niño formation during June-August and 17% chance of a “strong” event by August-October. The agency will release updated forecasts April 9. European models show greater intensity, with roughly half of computational scenarios indicating temperature anomalies above 4.5 degrees by October.
California impacts
The relationship between El Niño and Northern California precipitation remains complex. Sacramento’s National Weather Service states the correlation is weak for the state’s northern regions. Southern California typically receives increased rainfall, but results vary significantly.
Two of the three most recent super El Niño events brought substantial precipitation to the Bay Area: 1982-83 delivered 195% of normal rainfall, while 1997-98 brought 180%. The 2015-16 event produced exactly 99% of normal — nearly a dry season.
During winter 1997-98, storms and abnormally high ocean levels hammered the Bay Area coast. Water levels at Fort Point near the Golden Gate Bridge rose two feet above predicted heights. Flood and storm damage in the San Francisco Bay region reached hundreds of millions of dollars, with statewide losses totaling $850 million and 17 deaths.
The 1982-83 event proved even more destructive, completely destroying 33 coastal homes while storm waves and erosion damaged another 3,000 homes and 900 commercial properties.
Even when the 2015-16 super El Niño failed to bring extreme rainfall to California, coastal erosion set records. Central coast beaches retreated an average of 150 feet.
Expected conditions
Climate projections align on several key points for the U.S. West Coast: a hotter, more humid summer with unusual downpours, warmer coastal waters, and potential retreat of California’s signature fog. The probability increases for tropical storm remnants reaching California, with powerful winter storm series possible in 2026-27 bringing floods, landslides and elevated ocean levels.
Research published in Nature in December 2025 by a UCLA team led by Aoyun Xue found that super El Niño events can reset global climate patterns for decades, shifting temperature regimes, soil moisture and ocean surface temperatures to new baseline levels.
Consequences from the developing event, if it materializes, would persist through at least 2027. Uncertainty remains high since no two El Niño events follow identical patterns, but Pacific Ocean signals now exceed those observed at comparable stages of any previous event.