On February 26, the BART Board of Directors reviewed and approved the Alternative Service Plan — a contingency framework for what happens if new funding doesn’t materialize. The document outlines three phases of service cuts, culminating in a worst-case scenario: a complete shutdown.
The numbers behind the crisis
BART faces a $376 million budget deficit for fiscal year 2026–27. The emergency federal relief that kept the system afloat through the pandemic is gone. Before COVID, BART carried roughly 120 million riders a year. Remote work cratered ridership — and with it fare revenue, which the system depends on heavily. Tech layoffs over the past few years made it worse. Fewer people are commuting to San Francisco and Oakland offices.
California has approved roughly $590 million in emergency funding for Bay Area transit agencies — BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit. The money flows through the Metropolitan Transportation Commission as a stopgap. But it doesn’t fix the structural deficit. It buys time until a new revenue source kicks in or cuts are made.
What happens if funding falls short
January 2027 — Phase One. BART closes 10 of its lowest-ridership stations. About 600 employees are laid off. System capacity could drop by roughly 60 percent.
July 2027 — Phase Two. More stations close — up to 15 total. Fares could rise by about 50 percent, pushing the average ticket toward $7. Three lines remain, running every 30 minutes. Last train at 9 p.m. Another 600 job cuts, for a total of up to 1,200.
In the most extreme scenario, BART has acknowledged the possibility of a full service shutdown. Agency leadership warns that deep cuts risk triggering a “death spiral” — fewer trains means fewer riders, fewer riders means less revenue, less revenue means even fewer trains.
November 2026: the vote that decides everything
BART’s survival hinges on a ballot measure this November. Connect Bay Area would impose a new sales tax — half a percent in Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo and Santa Clara counties, and one percent in San Francisco County. Revenue would go to BART, Muni, Caltrain and AC Transit. If the measure fails and no other funding appears, the Alternative Service Plan goes into effect.
The board noted that specific stations targeted for closure have not been identified. That decision would be made by the board itself.
What it means for riders right now
Nothing changes yet. Emergency MTC funding keeps the system running normally at least until new revenue arrives or cuts are formally approved. The earliest any real changes happen is January 2027 — and only if November’s vote fails.
Updates at bart.gov/about/financials/crisis.