Gas prices in the Bay Area have been climbing for three straight weeks. According to AAA data as of March 22, the average cost of a gallon of regular in California hit $5.76. A month ago it was $4.62. That’s a $1.14 increase in four weeks.
Prices in the Bay Area are higher than the statewide average. San Rafael — $5.98 a gallon. San Francisco — $5.93. Santa Rosa — $5.93. Napa — $5.91. Oakland — $5.81. San Jose — $5.78. These are averages. At some stations in San Francisco, regular is already above $6.60.
Diesel prices are hitting record highs. In San Rafael, the average price of diesel hit $7.46 a gallon — an all-time high, above the June 2022 peak. In San Francisco, diesel is at $7.27 — also a record. For truck drivers and diesel car owners, the jump is painful: a month ago diesel in San Francisco cost $5.35.
The national average is $3.94. California drivers are paying $1.82 more. The reasons are the same: the war in Iran, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and the state’s structural problems — shrinking refinery capacity, special fuel blend requirements, and the highest gas tax in the country.
Brent crude is trading around $106–112 a barrel. On March 19 it climbed to $113.71 — a three-week high. The Trump administration announced a release of 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the market didn’t flinch. AAA spokesperson Doug Johnson said the reserves “had no immediate impact on prices.”
Goldman Sachs projects oil will stay in triple digits at least through the summer. In the best-case scenario — a gradual reopening of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — Brent could drop to $70 by the fourth quarter of 2026. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects prices will fall below $80 by the third quarter.
In April the situation could get worse with the closure of the Valero refinery in Benicia — one of the largest in Northern California. UC Davis economists calculated back in the summer of 2025 that shutting down two California refineries would add another $1.21 to the price of gas by August 2026. At the time it sounded alarming. Now it’s just another layer on top of the Iran crisis.
Simple math. A full tank for an average sedan is 12–13 gallons. A month ago that cost $60 in San Francisco. Now it’s $77. Over a year the difference adds up to more than $800.
Внесено четыре правки: “record highs”, две запятые после вводных, и полная фраза про EIA. “The Iran crisis” и “a release” — оставил как было.